Why define a trend and a correction

Let’s move on to the practical part. The fundamental point is the recognition and acceptance of the fact that the trader does not guess the further direction of the price. A good trader is not someone who has learned sophisticated tricks to help determine future price movements (oddly enough, although this is how he is presented at first). A good trader is one who has a 100 deposit increase.

See the difference? The first approach is connected with the desire to predict the price. He has a certain expectation, a kind of formula “if … then …” and imagines further price behavior.

In the second case, we simply have an entry point with predetermined (!) Exit points – at a loss or at a profit. Why not only profitably, since the trader is good? 🙂 Because a good trader understands: in each individual transaction, the price has 2 options for the development of events – it can go up, or it can go down, or “Stop-loss can work, or take profit can work.” However, a good trader conducted a study and came to the conclusion that according to the results of 100 transactions, 55 were closed at a profit, and 45 at a loss, and as a result … What? As a result, his deposit after 100 transactions will grow.

The crucial point is the recognition and acceptance of the fact that the trader’s job is not to guess the further direction of the price, but to develop a strategy that will give a positive result based on, for example, 100 transactions concluded.

This is dumb, I agree. What is the guarantee that in the future this ratio will not change, right? What is the guarantee that a reward awaits me if I agree to follow the system methodically and clearly and don’t jerk when the price goes against me in any particular transaction? Where is the guarantee that the next transaction will be profitable? What is the guarantee that there will be profitable deals in the future? This is the problem at the initial stage. Proper trading is not logical. He, in essence, is absurd for novice traders, he can not find a “rationale”, but good traders trade that way. Some difficulty lies in “probabilistic thinking” (this is when you are satisfied with 60% of profitable transactions, and not 100% – and you don’t worry). A novice trader cannot understand how it can be, that ONE AND THE SAME market situation in 6 cases out of 10 makes a profit, and in 4 cases – a loss. This is just crazy, right? Imagine that in the real world you put food in the microwave, and in 6 cases out of 10 it heats up in you, and in 4 cases it explodes (along with the microwave). Not really great, is it? And what will you do if the food with the microwave explodes (even for the first time)? You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second. and in 4 cases – a loss. This is just crazy, right? Imagine that in the real world you put food in the microwave, and in 6 cases out of 10 it heats up in you, and in 4 cases it explodes (along with the microwave). Not really great, is it? And what will you do if the food with the microwave explodes (even for the first time)? You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second. and in 4 cases – a loss. This is just crazy, right? Imagine that in the real world you put food in the microwave, and in 6 cases out of 10 it heats up in you, and in 4 cases it explodes (along with the microwave). Not really great, is it? And what will you do if the food with the microwave explodes (even for the first time)? You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second. and in 6 cases out of 10, it warms up with you, and in 4 cases it explodes (along with the microwave). Not really great, is it? And what will you do if the food with the microwave explodes (even for the first time)? You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second. and in 6 cases out of 10, it warms up with you, and in 4 cases it explodes (along with the microwave). Not really great, is it? And what will you do if the food with the microwave explodes (even for the first time)? You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second. You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second. You WILL SEARCH FOR FAULT – why, for what reason, the microwave did not suddenly heat up 7 times, but exploded? Apparently, something went wrong. And in the market, what do traders do when they have a stop triggered? Now you understand? Only in the case of a microwave can a malfunction be found, but in the case of a market, it is impossible. Because the microwave device does not change, and the market situation can change at any second.

We are just used to thinking from the point of view of “perfectionism” – to eliminate the “bad” and look for its causes, “improve”, “understand the causes of failure”, etc. This is normal, there is nothing to worry about, and this is the standard difficulty for beginning traders to change their thinking to “probabilistic” when you do not need to be an ideal trader, you just need to achieve a WHOLE positive result and constantly improve it, KNOWING WHAT IS IDEAL DO NOT REACH.

I will try to give an analogy again, but, I repeat – the whole point is how quickly you can switch from “improvement” to “analysis of a series of transactions.”

The analogy will be this: football players in training practice a certain combination 100 times. Each time they see some new nuances of this combination, they “feel” each other better, the passes become more accurate, and after a while, they have confidence (justified only by experience – they will not be able to pass it on WORD to someone or prove it or to convince that yes, this combination works). Having entered the field against a real opponent, they have no guarantee that this combination will work every time. However, the better they work it out, the more times they work it out, the more skilled these footballers and the longer they generally play football, the more perfect this combination will be and the higher the likelihood of its success.

Note that they won’t guess where the opponent will run (you can see how the players of any top teams play combinations), they don’t adapt to the opponents – all combinations are made as if “mechanically” because they were worked out 1000 times before, and there simply is no place for reflection and forecasting, thoughts about “guarantees of success”, etc. Do you understand? These people simply KNOW what to do, because they have done it hundreds of times, and they have confidence in success, which is NOT BASED on knowing the future. They know that if not this time, then the next or next time everything will surely work out. Although from the point of view of forecasting the future, this is not logical at all. =)

Instead of a conclusion, I want to say the following: the most difficult thing is to convince yourself to start practicing without faith and hope that you can create your own trading system because no one (!) At the initial stage has confidence in their own abilities, and therefore I want to find something- it’s already ready and profitable, I want to buy advisers with 1000% profit per day and trust authoritative people from the forum. Therefore, if you manage to overpower yourself, and if you do not turn down after a series of failures, then sooner or later you will start to trade better and better, and your skill will become more and more noticeable. And I sincerely wish everyone to reach this moment.

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